The civil war has changed the scenario of Myanmar. Almost the entire Rakhine state adjacent to Bangladesh is now under the control of the rebel group the Arakan Army. This has created a situation for a new turn in the Rohingya crisis.

The political situation burdened with more than 1.2 million Rohingya refugees has also changed in Bangladesh. What will Bangladesh do now in the changed situation in Myanmar? That is the question.

The Bangladesh government signed an agreement with the Myanmar government to send back the Rohingyas in 2017. But the repatriation could not be started due to various reasons.

Now, will Bangladesh establish contact with the Arakan Army instead of the junta government of Myanmar? If so, the question is how to do it and how the Myanmar government will react regarding the contact of Bangladesh government with the rebels. The roles of India and China are also significant in the issue.

The impact on the border
The conflict in Rakhine leaves clear impact in Cox's Bazar, the largest tourist city in Bangladesh. Bullets often fall and gunfire heard from the other side of the River Naf. The loud sound of explosions also spread panic among the people on this side of Naf.

After the Arakan Army took control of the area across the Naf River including Maungdaw, Bangladeshi fishermen have stopped fishing in the river. Travel to St. Martin's Island is also being disrupted.

Security analyst Retired Major General Nayeem Ashfaque Chowdhury believes that considering the strength of the Arakan Army the border will remain safe as there is no possibility of attacking our territory.

He said, “Myanmar’s junta government may be a dictator or the country may be a failed state. But they used to follow internationally accepted rules and regulations to protect the border. Instead the Arakan Army may want to ignore all the rules and regulations as the organisation is not internationally recognised.”

He feared that illegal drug and arms trade may increase along side the new Rohingya infiltration as rebel groups in all the countries of the world lean towards these illegal trades to raise funds.

Writer and researcher Altaf Parvez who interviewed Major General Twan Mrat Naing of the Arakan Army a few years ago expressed the same view.

He said, “Various Rohingya groups have taken up arms against the Arakan Army. As a result, the Arakan Army has become very conservative regarding the Rohingyas though they were somewhat soft towards the Rohingyas earlier.

India and China’s view
India and China have strategic and economic interests surrounding the Rakhine region of Myanmar as they have huge investments in the area. This may create complications in Rohingya repatriation from Bangladesh.

Dr. Saima Ahmed, a lecturer of the Department of International Relations at Dhaka University, thinks there is no reason for Bangladesh to fear India or China over Rohingya issue.

She said, as the host country of these refugees Bangladesh has the right to focus this issue to the world because these two countries will never solve the problem.

Retired Major Emdadul Islam, a former Bangladeshi diplomat in Myanmar, has observed that the geopolitical and economic interests of India and China in Rakhine are ‘opposite’.

He said, “China’s actions are going against India’s interests because of China’s influence on the Arakan Army.”

However, Sriradha Dutta, a professor of International Relations at India’s OP Jindal University, disagrees on the view. She told BBC Bangla that India and China are not at odds on all issues and that their positions may be similar in some areas.

She said, “India-funded work on the Kaladan Multimodal Project through Rakhine State to connect Mizoram or the northeastern region of India is underway. India has made the waterway from Kolkata to Sittwe suitable for shipping bypassing Bangladesh to a large extent.”

Retired Major Emdadul Islam told BBC Bangla that the belt has fallen into the hands of the Arakan Army and their activities seem to be going against India’s interests as China has exclusive influence over the Arakan Army.

On the other hand, China is building major gas, electricity and port projects in Rakhine. China has built the port as part of a special economic zone. From there, two pipelines- one for gas and another for oil- have been taken to the Chinese territory.

Analysts believe that India and China can reach an agreement to bring stability in Rakhine because of their own interests.

Anyway, the interim government of Bangladesh led by Professor Muhammad Yunus must keep all these issues in mind while trying to solve the Rohingya crisis.